16 Jan’18

Insights from WIPO’s “World IP Indicators 2017” Report: Key Patenting Trends Around the Globe

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The World IP Organization (WIPO) has recently published its annual report titled: “World Intellectual Property Indicators 2017”, covering world IP filing activity for 2016.  The report is a comprehensive coverage of global patent and trademark filing trends, comparing and ranking the world’s leading regional patent and trademark offices (“IP Offices”) by their level of activity in the various categories.

At a high level, it seems like many of the trends observed in 2015 continue into 2016: the global number of filings and grants keeps trending up; China continues to dominate in terms of annual filings and grants (breaking another record of 1.3 million filings this year); and the top 10 filing companies worldwide are all Asia-based multinationals.

Patent Filing Trends

A record number of 3 million patent applications were filed worldwide in 2016, up 8.3% from 2015, as seen in the figure below:

Source: World IP Indicators 2017, WIPO

Driving the strong growth in global filings was an exceptional number of filings in China. The State Intellectual Property Office of the People’s Republic of China (SIPO) received 1.3 million patent applications in 2016 – more than the combined total for the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO; 605,571), the Japan Patent Office (JPO; 318,381), the Korean Intellectual Property Office (KIPO; 208,830) and the European Patent Office (EPO; 159,358). Together, these top five offices accounted for 84% of the world total in 2016.

Below is a summary table showing the activity in the top 10 IP Offices in 2016:

Source: World IP Indicators 2017, WIPO

When it comes to understanding China’s continued explosive growth in new patent applications – over 1.3 million filed in 2016, an increase from the 1.1 million in 2015 (the first year the 1 million filings barrier has been exceeded in any country) — the circumstances surrounding the increase in Chinese patent filings are unique and should have come as no surprise to anyone following the Chinese government’s five-year plan of 2011. As explained in an article published in Nov. 2016 in the EE Times by Foresight’s president, Efrat Kasznik, over the last 50 years the Chinese Communist Party implemented a series of five-year plans which guided China’s rapid economic growth.  The 2011 five-year plan’s themes of sustainable growth included some specific targets for patent filing per capita.  The increased filing activity over the last five years is the direct result of a calculated government effort, enabled by an unprecedented allocation of legislative and administrative resources to support China’s State IP Office. Thus, the sharp rise in Chinese patent filings between 2010 and 2016 is very unique to China’s political circumstances, and is not necessarily correlated with the natural progression of innovation.

When reviewing filing trends by country, one of the most critical observations is the ratio of resident to non-resident filings.  A higher ratio of non-resident filings in any given country, is usually an indication not only of the size of that market for the underlying innovations, but also of the strength of the IP enforcement regime in that country.  Here, the trends from 2015 are repeating in 2016: as explained by Ms. Kasznik in her article, ratio in China is about 90% resident filers to 10% non-resident filers, a reflection of the relatively weak enforcement regime in China.  Conversely, the USPTO and the European Patent Office exhibit a ratio of resident to non-resident filings of about 50/50, attesting to the strength of IP enforcement regimes in those regions.

Patent Grants Trends

In 2016, an estimated 1.35 million patents were granted worldwide, up 8.9% on 2015.

Source: World IP Indicators 2017, WIPO

SIPO granted 404,208 patents in 2016, followed by the USPTO (303,049), the JPO (203,087), KIPO (108,875) and the EPO (95,956). The top five IP offices issued more than 1.1 million combined, accounting for 83% of the world total.

Not surprisingly, the number of new grants is trending upwards over time along with the number of new filings.  The WIPO report also includes statistics related to the operational efficiency of IP offices, such as: the number of examiners, application pendency times, and patent examination outcomes.  The workload of IP offices as measured by the number of incoming patent applications has increased over time, but so has their examination capacity to process those applications. The WIPO data show there has been no significant increase in application-to examiner ratios, and for a number of IP offices, growth in numbers of examiners has outstripped the increase in applications.

Another interesting metric reported is the number of patents in force in 2016: the estimated number of patents in force worldwide rose from 7.8 million in 2009 to 11.8 million in 2016. The USPTO leads with 2.8 million patents in force in 2016, followed by the JPO (2 million), SIPO (1.8 million) and KIPO (1 million). These four IP offices account for 63% of all patents in force worldwide.

Filing by Company

The top 10 patent applicants worldwide are Asia-based multinationals: Canon Inc. (Japan) was the top applicant for the period from 2011 to 2014, with 30,476 patent families worldwide, followed by Samsung Electronics (Korea) with 26,609 patent families, and Japanese companies Panasonic (22,899), Toshiba (22,627) and Toyota (22,190). Robert Bosch of Germany (16,582) was the highest-ranking non-Asian company at number 12.

Only 9 countries of origin comprise the top 100 list of applicant companies for the period from 2011 to 2014: Japan (40), China (26), Korea (15), U.S. (9), Germany (6) and one each from France, the Netherlands, Sweden and Taiwan.

 

 

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16 Sep’14

Crowdfunding Update: IP Protection and Startup Valuation Considerations

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Mary Juetten, CEO of Traklight and Efrat Kasznik, Foresight Valuation

Crowdfunding is expected to become a leading source of financing in the early stage, on both rewards and equity platforms. It is likely to add more transparency to startup valuations and, at the same time, contribute to an upward trend in valuations. However, the lack of attention to IP protection or infringement during the campaign can have negative implications on the valuation of your startup. The topic of IP protection should therefore be top of mind for entrepreneurs engaged in crowdfunding, as it is critical to their survival and success long after the campaign has ended.

Read the full article here .

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17 Jul’14

Living in a Bubble? Demystifying Startup Valuations

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Just when it seemed as though start-up valuations had peaked in 2013, the year 2014 has started with an opening shot in the form of the reported $3.2 billion acquisition of Nest Labs by Google, followed with Facebook’s $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp. It now looks as if this year continues the perfect-storm conditions, which will sustain the trend of high valuations for exits (M&A and IPOs) and transactions in coveted markets such as the Internet of Things, where Nest has a strong foothold.

From my vantage point in Silicon Valley, I am frequently asked whether we are in the midst of a ‘valuation bubble’. The answer to that goes back to the definition of a ‘bubble‘, which inherently involves some irrational behavior driving otherwise rational participants in the marketplace to stray from reasonable prices that could have been anticipated under similar circumstances. Understanding the factors driving business valuations hinges on understanding the valuation framework, access to capital, liquidity conditions and the overall technology landscape. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the major trends that are shaping startup valuations in order to establish whether current valuation levels actually represent irrational, bubble-like conditions.

1. Demise of Financial Fundamentals: Rise of KPI-Driven Valuations

Valuations in certain high-growth industries are undergoing a paradigm shift, with financial fundamentals making room for valuations based on key performance indicators (KPIs) such as user stickiness, churn and conversion rates. A common pitfall involves trying to benchmark valuations of pre-revenue companies against traditional financial valuation fundamentals, such as revenues and profit multiples. This might give people a false sense of irrationality when they try to justify the valuation. This may sound like a radical idea, but it is the only way to explain the price parity between Instagram and Ducati, two companies purchased on the same week in April 2012 for around $1 billon. Instagram, a high-flying social media start-up with no revenues and 50 million users, commanded the same price as Ducati, a century-old Italian motorcycle manufacturer with €500 million in revenues. Last year saw a proliferation of KPI-driven valuations, with pre-revenue start-ups such as SnapChat and Pinterest valued at billions of dollars.

2. JOBS Act and Crowdfunding: New Platforms for Funding Innovation

Reward-based and equity-based crowdfunding platforms are emerging as prominent means for funding innovation, with over $2.7 billion raised in more than 1 million campaigns across all types of crowdfunding platform in 2012. Equity-based crowdfunding was made possible by the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, which lifted the 80-year ban on public solicitation in the United States. The long-awaited equity crowdfunding Title III Securities and Exchange Commission regulations are expected to be released later this year, marking the full launch of equity crowdfunding in the United States (which is currently limited to accredited investors only). At the same time, reward-based crowdfunding is becoming increasingly popular, with major platforms such as Indiegogo and Kickstarter helping start-ups to raise millions of dollars and bring new products to market.

3. Supply and Demand: Cash is Abundant

The consensus in US investment circles is that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Several factors are at play here: corporate cash levels are at an all-time high, creating shareholder pressure; high liquidity is fueling private equity investors, which are moving into growth equity; and venture capital investors are increasing their funds, resulting in higher investment rounds. The abundance of cash for investment is pushing up valuations to higher levels across the board – a trend that is expected to continue in the near future.

4. Multiple Paths to Liquidity: Intense M&A and IPO activity

In 2013 the NYSE reported a total of 230 IPOs with a combined value of over US$55 billion across all major US stock exchanges. Companies going public in the United States are generally more mature and are staying private longer. Subsequently, pre-IPO liquidity in secondary markets is very important, especially to early shareholders and investors. M&A activity saw some decline in 2013, with slightly over 10,000 deals reported overall, including about 2,200 technology deals with a combined value in excess of $100 billion. IPOs and M&A deals represent alternative paths to liquidity, which drive valuations up as companies have several options. These pricing pressures are expected to continue through 2014.

5. Hot Technology Sectors: Major Disruption Ahead

Some technology sectors represent particularly high-growth opportunities, and are expected to rise above the tide and generate M&A activity and higher valuations in 2014. One such sector is the Internet of Things (IoT). The IoT represents the vision of a connected universe where objects, devices and people will all share a common network of communication. IDC estimates that the number of connected devices will grow to 212 billion by 2020, with about 30 billion devices smart enough to operate without human control. A study by GE concluded that the IoT market over the next 20 years could add as much as $15 trillion to global gross domestic product, which is roughly the size of the current US economy. The Internet of Things is gaining momentum with industry leaders such as GE and Cisco, which adopted it as a key element of their corporate vision in 2014 and beyond.

So, are we living in a valuation bubble? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, and perhaps we could characterize current valuation levels as “somewhat inflated, but mostly expected” under existing market conditions. These are exciting times, when disruptive technologies finally meet the right market conditions and capital infrastructure that allow for the kind of unprecedented valuations witnessed in recent years.

Full article here
16 Apr’14
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Industry report – Crowdfunding, the JOBS Act and the future of innovation funding

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If you back a Kickstarter crowdfunding project by a company that ends up selling to Facebook for $2 billion, do you deserve to get a return on your campaign donation? This is the q
uestion raised by some of the backers of the September 2012 crowdfunding campaign of the Oculus Rift virtual reality headset, which successfully raised $2.4
million on Kickstarter, a rewards-based crowdfunding platform.

Rewards platforms are not considered equity investment Efrat Kasznik Foresight Valuationportals. Instead, they offer ways for companies and projects to find supporters who make a monetary contribution (donation) in return for a set of rewards – ranging from merchandise such as a t-shirt all the way to pre-ordering the actual product itself. One Forbes analyst calculated that a campaign backer who put $300 into Oculus as an equity investment could have made a return of $20,000 when Facebook bought Oculus 18 months later for $2 billion. However compelling, this argument is largely flawed, as a rewards-based donation is technically not an equity investment. Equity crowdfunding is still pending in the United States, awaiting the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations required for the implementation of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, the 2012 legislation destined to open up equity crowdfunding to non-accredited investors in the United States for the first time in history. Several key valuation issues are worth discussing in the context of crowdfunding which are very specific to the crowdfunding platform and the regulations surrounding it. Continue reading

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